Okay, probably not really. But the 11th hour is drawing near and President Bush has not signed the CR. He has "indicated" that he will, he just hasn't.
Can you imagine the chaos if the gubmint is shut down tomorrow?? I would stay home all day with popcorn!
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Good Line
A good blog line from housingpanic.com:
Was [yesterday] the US Economic 9/11? Or was it the 2008 version of the Boston Tea Party?
Was [yesterday] the US Economic 9/11? Or was it the 2008 version of the Boston Tea Party?
Mad Props to SECU
So one thing I've been meaning to toss out there is the relative absence of credit unions in the news and it's so frickin' simple. Unlike these major for-profit lending/investment institutions who probably asked "what do you want to buy," the credit union reps said "based on your yearly income, this is what you can spend. "
What happened to following the time tested/approved rules like multiply gross income by three and you have your purchasing power for a new (or new to you) home?
hmm, so on the economic evolution horizon what do you all think about the eventual demise of these WaMu barosaurs and the rise of the small town banks (squeak squeak) after this cataclysm settles?
What happened to following the time tested/approved rules like multiply gross income by three and you have your purchasing power for a new (or new to you) home?
hmm, so on the economic evolution horizon what do you all think about the eventual demise of these WaMu barosaurs and the rise of the small town banks (squeak squeak) after this cataclysm settles?
Monday, September 29, 2008
Not to Gloat, but I'm Gloating
Email I sent to Greguar in late July:
I think today's DOW drop is day 1 of another 'panic' period. I'm seeing the DOW hitting 10,500 within before the start of Oct. After that, we'll see another up period before the drop drops into 4 digits by Jan. I can just feel it...someone relatively large is about to get creamed (really bad news, not going under). Washington Mutual, perhaps? Or Freddie Mac? Lehman is always a possibility. And a dark horse candidate would be Merrill Lynch. Hope alls good by you.
Excuse the grammar problems, but I predicted the dow at/under 10,500 by Oct 1. There may be an uptick at close, but it's Sept 29 and the DOW is 10,508. A forecast error of 7.62*10^-4. To be fair, I'll recalcuate at close tomorrow.
I think today's DOW drop is day 1 of another 'panic' period. I'm seeing the DOW hitting 10,500 within before the start of Oct. After that, we'll see another up period before the drop drops into 4 digits by Jan. I can just feel it...someone relatively large is about to get creamed (really bad news, not going under). Washington Mutual, perhaps? Or Freddie Mac? Lehman is always a possibility. And a dark horse candidate would be Merrill Lynch. Hope alls good by you.
Excuse the grammar problems, but I predicted the dow at/under 10,500 by Oct 1. There may be an uptick at close, but it's Sept 29 and the DOW is 10,508. A forecast error of 7.62*10^-4. To be fair, I'll recalcuate at close tomorrow.
So the Bailout Failed
And guess what? 1) the economy will get worse than today and 2) the sun will rise tomorrow, and every day after that.
NASDAQ
Anyone notice the NASDAQ is down 5% today?
******Update 1: Anyone notice teh NASDAQ is down 7% today?
******Update 1: Anyone notice teh NASDAQ is down 7% today?
NOOOO!!! This .... this is the final straw!
Doug E. Fresh is a member of the Church of Scientology. He has performed for large audiences of Scientologists at the Scientology Celebrity Centre's Anniversary Gala in 2004,[5] 2005, and 2006.[citation needed] He also performed two tracks on the all-star Scientology music album The Joy of Creating (other artists appearing include Isaac Hayes, Chick Corea, Edgar Winter, and Carl Anderson).[6]
They have taken away my childhood!
Top Gun..Fresh Prince...Mall Rats...Chef... and now La Di Da Di !!!
Here's the Thing
Every 2 hours, I scroll through a list of financial stocks of companies I think are troubled to see how they're trading. I did so today and was only able to enter in 2 symbols: C (Citigroup) and NCC (National City Corp). Including MS (Morgan Stanley) and GS (Goldman Sachs), I used to pull up over a dozen companies each day. That's because the weak ones are out of the system. That's good. Let it happen. Don't bail out the mofos with $700 billion. The systematic damage has already been done.
Oh, and we are getting close to the 'buy the shit out of BAC (Bank of America)' day.
Oh, and we are getting close to the 'buy the shit out of BAC (Bank of America)' day.
Check
Wachovia ceases to exist in its current form.
The problem I have here is that the acquiring bank, Citibank, is also on my death list. Also, different outlets are reporting this differently...cnn as FDIC-forced and msnbc as a simple buy out.
*****Update 1 This Charlotte Observer article suggests the FDIC forced the merger. Citigroup only acquires the retail banking portion and the Federal Goverment backstops the losses above $42 billion. This sounds a bit like a good bank/bad bank scenario.
The problem I have here is that the acquiring bank, Citibank, is also on my death list. Also, different outlets are reporting this differently...cnn as FDIC-forced and msnbc as a simple buy out.
*****Update 1 This Charlotte Observer article suggests the FDIC forced the merger. Citigroup only acquires the retail banking portion and the Federal Goverment backstops the losses above $42 billion. This sounds a bit like a good bank/bad bank scenario.
Saturday, September 27, 2008
revisit to the cordless drill screwbit
So Elmo this morning is about construction and there is a short piece involving a screwdriver and I realized a solution to Traydee's long ago post about his extended drill bit.
I don't remember that we solved it to my satisfaction and I'm too absent minded to remember exactly when we were discussing it to find the thread. . .
What I remember was the screw driver being dismissed as a simple wheel/axle system and that typically a larger grip (wheel) was the only way to increase it's ease of use.
But I was thinking about it further this morning and it seems that the screwdriver is still the standard arm-arm lever, just not the effort-fulcrum-resistance type.
I am not 100% certain but I'm thinking it's a second class lever too, like door/wheelbarrow. The fulcrum is IN the screw head, the resistance is the tip of the driver inside the screwhead and of course the shaft/handle is the effort arm. (fulcrum-resistance-effort) This form of second class lever may be extreme because the resistance is micrometers from the fulcrum and only mm in distance. and accordingly the distance the screwdriver moves is hardly noticeable by the human eye. (or the angular distance falls below the 1/60 degree resolution of the human eye)
So if we look at dynamic equilibrium here: FD = FD The longer screwdriver shaft increases the length of the effort arm and the perpendicular distance the shaft moves and increases the force applied at the resistance (whose arm length cannot change!).
given a drill bit long enough, Tray could screw the world. . .
Please pick this apart for something simple I'm missing that blows me out of the water. . . And go move stuff in a wheelbarrow for review!
I don't remember that we solved it to my satisfaction and I'm too absent minded to remember exactly when we were discussing it to find the thread. . .
What I remember was the screw driver being dismissed as a simple wheel/axle system and that typically a larger grip (wheel) was the only way to increase it's ease of use.
But I was thinking about it further this morning and it seems that the screwdriver is still the standard arm-arm lever, just not the effort-fulcrum-resistance type.
I am not 100% certain but I'm thinking it's a second class lever too, like door/wheelbarrow. The fulcrum is IN the screw head, the resistance is the tip of the driver inside the screwhead and of course the shaft/handle is the effort arm. (fulcrum-resistance-effort) This form of second class lever may be extreme because the resistance is micrometers from the fulcrum and only mm in distance. and accordingly the distance the screwdriver moves is hardly noticeable by the human eye. (or the angular distance falls below the 1/60 degree resolution of the human eye)
So if we look at dynamic equilibrium here: FD = FD The longer screwdriver shaft increases the length of the effort arm and the perpendicular distance the shaft moves and increases the force applied at the resistance (whose arm length cannot change!).
given a drill bit long enough, Tray could screw the world. . .
Please pick this apart for something simple I'm missing that blows me out of the water. . . And go move stuff in a wheelbarrow for review!
Friday, September 26, 2008
It's a sad day because it's over
So while some may believe this belongs on the sports blog, it/he deserves the respect of StRA.The love affair with Eddie George is sadly over. He has aged poorly, and just doesn't have the youthful beautiful zing he once did. What started on 1/30/00 has ended on 9/26/08 at 9:32PM. While turning the channels he was noticed on the Best Damn Sports Show. Seeing him ragged and old as well as losing respect for him because he was on the Best Damn Sports Show has caused great sadness in my heart and in my life.
While, as Boys to Men once sang, "It's so hard to say goodbye to yesterday", life must go on. I'm going to take some time to myself and learn to love me. Maybe one day I'll find another.
Goodbye Eddie. Goodbye. I'll always remember you.
**Sniff**
Sweet!!!
Congressman Paul Kanjorski (D-PA) was just on CNBC and said that his mail and calls on the bailout plan are running 50-50: 50% no and 50% hell no.
And this gem (which MIGHT be Deuce-worthy)
"So the Dems have a Republican President, Treasury & Fed Chief for, Reps in the Senate are for it. The media will say 'Wall Street greed' & lack of regulation is the cause (no mention of Fannie & Freddie). With all that, the Dems won't use their majority unless they have even more cover - the House GOP. Amazing."
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Thunder Road is one of the 12 most awesome songs ever
that is all.
I'm up for debate on a lot of things (like whether butterflies smell through their feet), but these are the facts and they are indisputable.
Thanks.
I'm up for debate on a lot of things (like whether butterflies smell through their feet), but these are the facts and they are indisputable.
Thanks.
Speak the Truth, brotha man!!
Linky goodness_Forbes.com
One bad regulatory turn leads to another, and lo, the bailouts come thick and fast. At the nth hour, wise heads often rightly conclude that some desperate measure has to be taken to prevent the financial disintegration brought on by, well, prior government regulation. Those bailouts, of course, come from the hides of taxpayers who borrowed prudently. The entire system subsidizes destructive behavior, which means that we will get more destructive behavior in the future. We might as well sell flood insurance at bargain prices in Galveston, Texas, and New Orleans.
The moral of this story is that bad regulation metastasizes. Short term heroics are no substitute for dispassionate deregulation, which won’t happen so long as our political leaders are fixated on greed. Taking steps to prevent financial meltdowns is more likely to hasten their unwelcome arrival, so says the libertarian.
I would like to add this tidbit
The Man quietly loaned $50 billion to the Big Three yesterday, and yet its scale is so minuscule now that no one noticed, or cared.
Another useless letter to another ambivalent politician.
Congressman Boehner,
Please stand strong against the "Mother of All Bailouts". The amount of money already wasted by politicians of all stripes would be scandalous if more people understood scientific notation. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity to repair the Republican image as being fiscally prudent and making individuals pay for their own mistakes.
There is going to be a recession. The media are going to blame Republicans anyway. The LEAST you can do is save us $700,000,000,000.
Good luck,
"Rear Admri0l"
Raleigh NC
Please stand strong against the "Mother of All Bailouts". The amount of money already wasted by politicians of all stripes would be scandalous if more people understood scientific notation. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity to repair the Republican image as being fiscally prudent and making individuals pay for their own mistakes.
There is going to be a recession. The media are going to blame Republicans anyway. The LEAST you can do is save us $700,000,000,000.
Good luck,
"Rear Admri0l"
Raleigh NC
***SAN***
Also sent to Sen. McConnell, Republican leader, and Sen. Burr of NC.
Dole = Useless
Hippy dude @ work started yammering about this dude yesterday
WNYC - Books: The Last American Man
I myself have never been to Turtle Island, but i THINK T Bone might have, and almost 100% sure Luke has gone there.
I myself have never been to Turtle Island, but i THINK T Bone might have, and almost 100% sure Luke has gone there.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
LOL !!! Its like we're all Nigerian now :-)
Dear American:
I need to ask you to support an urgent secret business relationship with a transfer of funds of great magnitude.
I am Ministry of the Treasury of the Republic of America. My country has had crisis that has caused the need for large transfer of funds of 800 billion dollars US. If you would assist me in this transfer, it would be most profitable to you.
I am working with Mr. Phil Gram, lobbyist for UBS, who will be my replacement as Ministry of the Treasury in January. As a Senator, you may know him as the leader of the American banking deregulation movement in the
1990s. This transaction is 100% safe.
This is a matter of great urgency. We need a blank check. We need the funds as quickly as possible. We cannot directly transfer these funds in the names of our close friends because we are constantly under surveillance. My family lawyer advised me that I should look for a reliable and trustworthy person who will act as a next of kin so the funds can be transferred.
Please reply with all of your bank account, IRA and college fund account numbers and those of your children and grandchildren to wallstreetbailout@treasury.gov so that we may transfer your commission for this transaction. After I receive that information, I will respond with detailed information about safeguards that will be used to protect the funds.
Yours Faithfully Minister of Treasury Paulson
I need to ask you to support an urgent secret business relationship with a transfer of funds of great magnitude.
I am Ministry of the Treasury of the Republic of America. My country has had crisis that has caused the need for large transfer of funds of 800 billion dollars US. If you would assist me in this transfer, it would be most profitable to you.
I am working with Mr. Phil Gram, lobbyist for UBS, who will be my replacement as Ministry of the Treasury in January. As a Senator, you may know him as the leader of the American banking deregulation movement in the
1990s. This transaction is 100% safe.
This is a matter of great urgency. We need a blank check. We need the funds as quickly as possible. We cannot directly transfer these funds in the names of our close friends because we are constantly under surveillance. My family lawyer advised me that I should look for a reliable and trustworthy person who will act as a next of kin so the funds can be transferred.
Please reply with all of your bank account, IRA and college fund account numbers and those of your children and grandchildren to wallstreetbailout@treasury.gov so that we may transfer your commission for this transaction. After I receive that information, I will respond with detailed information about safeguards that will be used to protect the funds.
Yours Faithfully Minister of Treasury Paulson
Student, car debt quietly added to bailout plan
Washington Times - Student, car debt quietly added to bailout plan
We might want to start migrating these posts over to the Deuce, since we've clearly moved from the realm of mortgage backed securities to that of making sausage.
I am suddenly starting to see this as a Nash equilibrium problem, and wondering why the fuck Im wasting time & money making payments. If no one else sees fit to act responsibly, why should I?
We might want to start migrating these posts over to the Deuce, since we've clearly moved from the realm of mortgage backed securities to that of making sausage.
I am suddenly starting to see this as a Nash equilibrium problem, and wondering why the fuck Im wasting time & money making payments. If no one else sees fit to act responsibly, why should I?
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
The A-holes are coming out in droves
Bounce with me, beechesI worked both nights this past weekend and we were BUSY. Friday night our guys had to literally carry out several individuals and one guy had to 'help' the police officers restrain a guy by bouncing his ass off the sidewalk a time or two. That particular guy was arrested after this all because he refused to take off his sunglasses while he was inside the club. Why someone would wear sunglasses inside of a dark club with only blacklights for light is beyond me but it happens much more than any of you probably think. Now when I say he wouldn't take off his sunglasses I don't mean off the top of his head he had them on his eyes. It is pretty much only white guys who get pissed when we tell them to remove their sunglasses from on top of their head. Once again, it's fucking night time leave 'em in the car Galileo. It's not like you forgot to check the weather channel and were suprised by this sudden change.
Saturday I got to see one of the most awesome things in my life. Mild anarchy. Around midnight several incidents happened all at once. We usually have 3 or 4 people a night who are on call. They are there to report to incidents that take place in a club since we have three clubs. So far never had anything happen that couldn't be handled by the guys who are stationed inside a club and the 3 or 4 floaters who are very fast when called. Saturday we had a fight, a drunk and disorderly, a guy trying to reach up girls skirts, someone vomiting, and some jack ass who was loud and trying to fight anyone who appoached him all happen within minutes of each other. Needless to say that the floaters couldn't cover it all. We were fine and got everything squared away eventually but had to shut down entraces to all three for a few minutes so that we could hold the doors open while we bounced out the A-holes. One guy gets REALLY angry once he is outside and starts to yell and cuss at everyone around him. Even the police. They call for back up and follow the guy who is slowly walking away ... but he is in the middle of the street and now stopping traffic and yelling at motorists. The 2 police who are on duty weigh in at about 130lbs a piece. I weigh more than both of them. They start towards the gentleman and one of them pulls out his baton and then flicks it out. The guy eventually made it into a vehicle and away from people and back up arrived and he was taken to jail but all in all a spectacular moment for me. I thought to myself surely this officer isn't going for the baton....wait for it....wait for it...Surely he isn't going to flick it out...wait for it...wait for it....and then I came in my good work trousers.
Business Idea I need one of you to run with.
Since I am the ideas man, and details have never been my strong suit, here's one for all you business majors. Two actually.
Jägermeister Clear -- imagine the taste of Jager without the dookie darkness.
And....
Goldschläger Dark -- imagine the taste of edit /peppermint/ edit CINNAMON with a hint of danger !
Thoughts ???
Jägermeister Clear -- imagine the taste of Jager without the dookie darkness.
And....
Goldschläger Dark -- imagine the taste of edit /peppermint/ edit CINNAMON with a hint of danger !
Thoughts ???
Rage! Rage against the Mother of All Bailouts!
Senator Dole,
Based on your previous record, I have no hope that you will actually stand up for taxpayers and vote NO on the "Mother of All Bailouts".
Please -- its not even written in fine print:
"Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency. "
"The Secretarys authority to purchase mortgage-related assets under this Act shall be limited to $700,000,000,000 outstanding at any one time."
'AT ONE TIME' seems to imply he is going to come back for more.
As Kissenger said, every choice is a bad one, even doing nothing. At least if you take the time to think this through, the fact that laws and regulation only push companies to exploit "loopholes", leading to the NEXT scandal, it might be prudent to not write a blank check for $700 billion dollars. Take a stand now, instead of pushing this off onto your successor -- you're going to lose this election anyway, you might as well go down swinging.
I do not expect you to surprise me.
Enjoy retirement,
"Rear Admir0l"
Raleigh NC
Based on your previous record, I have no hope that you will actually stand up for taxpayers and vote NO on the "Mother of All Bailouts".
Please -- its not even written in fine print:
"Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency. "
"The Secretarys authority to purchase mortgage-related assets under this Act shall be limited to $700,000,000,000 outstanding at any one time."
'AT ONE TIME' seems to imply he is going to come back for more.
As Kissenger said, every choice is a bad one, even doing nothing. At least if you take the time to think this through, the fact that laws and regulation only push companies to exploit "loopholes", leading to the NEXT scandal, it might be prudent to not write a blank check for $700 billion dollars. Take a stand now, instead of pushing this off onto your successor -- you're going to lose this election anyway, you might as well go down swinging.
I do not expect you to surprise me.
Enjoy retirement,
"Rear Admir0l"
Raleigh NC
This is Comedy
Assuming you think it's possible for such things to be funny, Washington Mutual was downgraded from D+ to E today. Very few people, even in the Wall St community, knew an E grade existed.
As Long as Rear Mentions it
The bailout is a bit shady. My favorite quote from the bailout (yes, actual quote taken in context) is :
"Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency. "
My other favorite, that the mainstream media doesn't seem to notice, is:
"The Secretarys authority to purchase mortgage-related assets under this Act shall be limited to $700,000,000,000 outstanding at any one time."
Notice that the spending limit is not $700 billion; the proposal only limits Paulson to writing any single check that exceeds $700 billion. And trust me, as I have been onto the severity of this for 1.5 years, the final tab will far exceed $700 billion. $700 billion is a starting place.
If you care about stopping this, write your North Carolina Senator but know it won't do anything. I've already shredding many polite replies from our Senators saying this is not a problem. If you want potential results, contact Rep Ron Paul and Sen Jim Bunning and tell them you're pissed.
"Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency. "
My other favorite, that the mainstream media doesn't seem to notice, is:
"The Secretarys authority to purchase mortgage-related assets under this Act shall be limited to $700,000,000,000 outstanding at any one time."
Notice that the spending limit is not $700 billion; the proposal only limits Paulson to writing any single check that exceeds $700 billion. And trust me, as I have been onto the severity of this for 1.5 years, the final tab will far exceed $700 billion. $700 billion is a starting place.
If you care about stopping this, write your North Carolina Senator but know it won't do anything. I've already shredding many polite replies from our Senators saying this is not a problem. If you want potential results, contact Rep Ron Paul and Sen Jim Bunning and tell them you're pissed.
Monday, September 22, 2008
Blah
Another week, another loss of the best player(s) on the team.
NC State loses best two players for South Florida game
This is as rediculous as Herb Sendeck's injuries from 1997-1999.
NC State loses best two players for South Florida game
This is as rediculous as Herb Sendeck's injuries from 1997-1999.
Happy Fall!!
I haven't seen a daily high temperature below 90 since early June and it's looking to be at least the first week of October before I do, but that is a-okay. Fall has arrived!
Good times @ work
KH(11:35:00): so , funny story from the weekend
KH(11:35:17): used to know this dude, tiny little indian guy
KH(11:35:35): LOVED him some anime , especially the sailer moon stuff
Gee(11:35:58): hahahaha
Gee(11:36:01): funny already
KH(11:36:34): and the fact he had #1 never been on a date and #2 was 25 made him an easy target for being either deep in the closet or... well, nothing else but the conclusion that he was over the top gay
KH(11:37:18): so a college buddy came into town for the game and we were shooting the shit & just completely bullshitting until like 3 on friday night
KH(11:37:46): turns out.... the tubes REALLY do make a difference in the lives of hopeless geeks.
KH(11:38:07): indian dude met a chick online who was into dressing up as.....
KH(11:38:09): wait for it
KH(11:38:12): wait for it
KH(11:38:40): one of the sailers or sailors, however one spells it
Gee(11:39:04): holy shit.
KH(11:39:16): im like -- besides the beatles, if that doesnt make people believe in the existence of a kind and merciful god, I dont know what will.
KH(11:39:39): and ...
KH(11:39:41): SURPRISE!!!
KH(11:39:52): their parents arent happy.
KH(11:39:52): LOL
Gee(11:40:31): um...more importantly, we need pictures of this shit.
KH(11:41:05): I MIGHT have burned the bridges down so bad that I will not be able to provide you with said pics.
Gee(11:41:14): YOU ASSHOLE
KH(11:35:17): used to know this dude, tiny little indian guy
KH(11:35:35): LOVED him some anime , especially the sailer moon stuff
Gee(11:35:58): hahahaha
Gee(11:36:01): funny already
KH(11:36:34): and the fact he had #1 never been on a date and #2 was 25 made him an easy target for being either deep in the closet or... well, nothing else but the conclusion that he was over the top gay
KH(11:37:18): so a college buddy came into town for the game and we were shooting the shit & just completely bullshitting until like 3 on friday night
KH(11:37:46): turns out.... the tubes REALLY do make a difference in the lives of hopeless geeks.
KH(11:38:07): indian dude met a chick online who was into dressing up as.....
KH(11:38:09): wait for it
KH(11:38:12): wait for it
KH(11:38:40): one of the sailers or sailors, however one spells it
Gee(11:39:04): holy shit.
KH(11:39:16): im like -- besides the beatles, if that doesnt make people believe in the existence of a kind and merciful god, I dont know what will.
KH(11:39:39): and ...
KH(11:39:41): SURPRISE!!!
KH(11:39:52): their parents arent happy.
KH(11:39:52): LOL
Gee(11:40:31): um...more importantly, we need pictures of this shit.
KH(11:41:05): I MIGHT have burned the bridges down so bad that I will not be able to provide you with said pics.
Gee(11:41:14): YOU ASSHOLE
Drudge is overloaded, so I've copy pasted for Sweet Dee's benefit.
Bloomberg.com: Opinion
How the Democrats Created the Financial Crisis: Kevin Hassett
Commentary by Kevin Hassett
More Photos/Details
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The financial crisis of the past year has provided a number of surprising twists and turns, and from Bear Stearns Cos. to American International Group Inc., ambiguity has been a big part of the story.
Why did Bear Stearns fail, and how does that relate to AIG? It all seems so complex.
But really, it isn't. Enough cards on this table have been turned over that the story is now clear. The economic history books will describe this episode in simple and understandable terms: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac exploded, and many bystanders were injured in the blast, some fatally.
Fannie and Freddie did this by becoming a key enabler of the mortgage crisis. They fueled Wall Street's efforts to securitize subprime loans by becoming the primary customer of all AAA-rated subprime-mortgage pools. In addition, they held an enormous portfolio of mortgages themselves.
In the times that Fannie and Freddie couldn't make the market, they became the market. Over the years, it added up to an enormous obligation. As of last June, Fannie alone owned or guaranteed more than $388 billion in high-risk mortgage investments. Their large presence created an environment within which even mortgage-backed securities assembled by others could find a ready home.
The problem was that the trillions of dollars in play were only low-risk investments if real estate prices continued to rise. Once they began to fall, the entire house of cards came down with them.
Turning Point
Take away Fannie and Freddie, or regulate them more wisely, and it's hard to imagine how these highly liquid markets would ever have emerged. This whole mess would never have happened.
It is easy to identify the historical turning point that marked the beginning of the end.
Back in 2005, Fannie and Freddie were, after years of dominating Washington, on the ropes. They were enmeshed in accounting scandals that led to turnover at the top. At one telling moment in late 2004, captured in an article by my American Enterprise Institute colleague Peter Wallison, the Securities and Exchange Comiission's chief accountant told disgraced Fannie Mae chief Franklin Raines that Fannie's position on the relevant accounting issue was not even ``on the page'' of allowable interpretations.
Then legislative momentum emerged for an attempt to create a ``world-class regulator'' that would oversee the pair more like banks, imposing strict requirements on their ability to take excessive risks. Politicians who previously had associated themselves proudly with the two accounting miscreants were less eager to be associated with them. The time was ripe.
Greenspan's Warning
The clear gravity of the situation pushed the legislation forward. Some might say the current mess couldn't be foreseen, yet in 2005 Alan Greenspan told Congress how urgent it was for it to act in the clearest possible terms: If Fannie and Freddie ``continue to grow, continue to have the low capital that they have, continue to engage in the dynamic hedging of their portfolios, which they need to do for interest rate risk aversion, they potentially create ever-growing potential systemic risk down the road,'' he said. ``We are placing the total financial system of the future at a substantial risk.''
What happened next was extraordinary. For the first time in history, a serious Fannie and Freddie reform bill was passed by the Senate Banking Committee. The bill gave a regulator power to crack down, and would have required the companies to eliminate their investments in risky assets.
Different World
If that bill had become law, then the world today would be different. In 2005, 2006 and 2007, a blizzard of terrible mortgage paper fluttered out of the Fannie and Freddie clouds, burying many of our oldest and most venerable institutions. Without their checkbooks keeping the market liquid and buying up excess supply, the market would likely have not existed.
But the bill didn't become law, for a simple reason: Democrats opposed it on a party-line vote in the committee, signaling that this would be a partisan issue. Republicans, tied in knots by the tight Democratic opposition, couldn't even get the Senate to vote on the matter.
That such a reckless political stand could have been taken by the Democrats was obscene even then. Wallison wrote at the time: ``It is a classic case of socializing the risk while privatizing the profit. The Democrats and the few Republicans who oppose portfolio limitations could not possibly do so if their constituents understood what they were doing.''
Mounds of Materials
Now that the collapse has occurred, the roadblock built by Senate Democrats in 2005 is unforgivable. Many who opposed the bill doubtlessly did so for honorable reasons. Fannie and Freddie provided mounds of materials defending their practices. Perhaps some found their propaganda convincing.
But we now know that many of the senators who protected Fannie and Freddie, including Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Christopher Dodd, have received mind-boggling levels of financial support from them over the years.
Throughout his political career, Obama has gotten more than $125,000 in campaign contributions from employees and political action committees of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, second only to Dodd, the Senate Banking Committee chairman, who received more than $165,000.
Clinton, the 12th-ranked recipient of Fannie and Freddie PAC and employee contributions, has received more than $75,000 from the two enterprises and their employees. The private profit found its way back to the senators who killed the fix.
There has been a lot of talk about who is to blame for this crisis. A look back at the story of 2005 makes the answer pretty clear.
Oh, and there is one little footnote to the story that's worth keeping in mind while Democrats point fingers between now and Nov. 4: Senator John McCain was one of the three cosponsors of S.190, the bill that would have averted this mess.
(Kevin Hassett, director of economic-policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, is a Bloomberg News columnist. He is an adviser to Republican Senator John McCain of Arizona in the 2008 presidential election. The opinions expressed are his own.)
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Friday, September 19, 2008
What Next?
Okay, so the feds are allowing firms to take bad mortgage debt and 'pay it forward' to the taxpayer. This is a game changer in terms of timeline how the problems effect the economy. It changes enough that my 7-point checklist is trash; you must remove Wachovia and Washington Mutual (I think).
The new problems are: 1) The failure of Lehman means Credit Default Swap geenie is out of the bottle and no one knows how pissed he is. 1A) This doesn't do anything for the shadow economy. 2) No one can cancel out the $1.5 trillion in housing losses and all they're doing is moving it to the government's balance sheet. 3) Even if the USA can actually solve bad mortgage debt within our boundries, but we can not do anthing about property bubbles abroad nor does this address other bad debt (commercial, especially). 4) The securitization model is dead and financial need a new business model.
New 7 point list:
I don't have it yet but it will include:
A) Credit rating of the United States
B) Inflation rates (and pricing of gold to indexes)
C) The value of US Debt when it changes hands abroad (do they have CDS spreads for US Gvmt? maybe use exchange rates?)
D) Auto loand default rates
I don't know, it's a working model. But let me tell you this: the only other nation that tried to do this was Ethiopa, and that's what gave us 'We Are the World'
The new problems are: 1) The failure of Lehman means Credit Default Swap geenie is out of the bottle and no one knows how pissed he is. 1A) This doesn't do anything for the shadow economy. 2) No one can cancel out the $1.5 trillion in housing losses and all they're doing is moving it to the government's balance sheet. 3) Even if the USA can actually solve bad mortgage debt within our boundries, but we can not do anthing about property bubbles abroad nor does this address other bad debt (commercial, especially). 4) The securitization model is dead and financial need a new business model.
New 7 point list:
I don't have it yet but it will include:
A) Credit rating of the United States
B) Inflation rates (and pricing of gold to indexes)
C) The value of US Debt when it changes hands abroad (do they have CDS spreads for US Gvmt? maybe use exchange rates?)
D) Auto loand default rates
I don't know, it's a working model. But let me tell you this: the only other nation that tried to do this was Ethiopa, and that's what gave us 'We Are the World'
Happy Talk Like a Pirate Day !
Gee(11:56:17): how do pirates know they are pirates?
Gee(11:58:37): they think, therefore they ARRRR!!!!!
Gee(11:58:37): they think, therefore they ARRRR!!!!!
Thursday, September 18, 2008
To Do By Monday
1) Liquidate Washington Mutual
2) Check all of Morgan Stanleys options and find none
3) Let Morgan Stanley and Wachovia enter a suicide pact
Get on it.
2) Check all of Morgan Stanleys options and find none
3) Let Morgan Stanley and Wachovia enter a suicide pact
Get on it.
Interesting tool - proxy server for accessing blocked stuff
https://www.ctunnel.com/
It appears the folks that hacked into the Yahoo account of a certain national figure went through here.
We found a different way at work to avoid blocked sites, so dont need this right now.
It appears the folks that hacked into the Yahoo account of a certain national figure went through here.
We found a different way at work to avoid blocked sites, so dont need this right now.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Step No. 7
I have watched the Lehman/Merrill/AIG/(and dare I say) Morgan Stanley debacles the last few days and I have decided what my 7th sign is before it's time to buy stocks...wait for it...
But first, I had an odd thought this morning as I walked the dog in my ghetto neighborhood. On someone's doorstep I saw the News & Observer and, in headline font as large as 9/11 attacks, it announced the bailout of AIG. Maybe not this specific event, but certainly events of this magnitude, have been slowly walking towards us, faster than a speeding cannonball. I first read the news as described by bloggers in 2005, the entire time out there for all of us to see. And no one stopped it. We just kept going. And the government is trying to lead us further down this path by propping up artificially high housing prices and keeping dead institutions alive through gimicky programs. No one in government will acknowledge that AIG failing is the cure; or that gluttonous credit availability was the cause. It's really quite sickening that 3 years ago I could read it on a blog but nothing happened. It's not Bush, it's not Democratic Senate, it's the American dream taken to some extreme. What built this mess the mistake of extrapolating a stable trend into an extreme range and expecting the consistency to remain entact. It doesn't work. We have some pain ahead of us while the Western World moves back to the long-standing trend that we built over the last 150 years but that's good. That's natural. That's something to sacrifice for. And we're going to start sacrificing any day now.
Now let's review what needs to happen before it's safe to buy stocks again (note: this won't end the recession or unemployment, only the market collapse).
1) Failure of a regional bank (IndyMac) (Check)
2) Failure of a regional bank (Washington Mutual) (Friday?)
3) Failure of Fannie Mae (Check)
4) Falure of Freddie Mac (Check)
5) End of Wachovia as we know it (January?)
6) End of Citibank as we know it (January?)
7) The United States of America loses its AAA credit rating (April?)
I'm not saying the USA of will have junk status. It may remain the highest rated entity in the world. But it won't be AAA.
So here we have it. The DOW drops below 10,000 by January 15. It spends a little while bouncing between 9,000 and 10,000. And then we move on.
But first, I had an odd thought this morning as I walked the dog in my ghetto neighborhood. On someone's doorstep I saw the News & Observer and, in headline font as large as 9/11 attacks, it announced the bailout of AIG. Maybe not this specific event, but certainly events of this magnitude, have been slowly walking towards us, faster than a speeding cannonball. I first read the news as described by bloggers in 2005, the entire time out there for all of us to see. And no one stopped it. We just kept going. And the government is trying to lead us further down this path by propping up artificially high housing prices and keeping dead institutions alive through gimicky programs. No one in government will acknowledge that AIG failing is the cure; or that gluttonous credit availability was the cause. It's really quite sickening that 3 years ago I could read it on a blog but nothing happened. It's not Bush, it's not Democratic Senate, it's the American dream taken to some extreme. What built this mess the mistake of extrapolating a stable trend into an extreme range and expecting the consistency to remain entact. It doesn't work. We have some pain ahead of us while the Western World moves back to the long-standing trend that we built over the last 150 years but that's good. That's natural. That's something to sacrifice for. And we're going to start sacrificing any day now.
Now let's review what needs to happen before it's safe to buy stocks again (note: this won't end the recession or unemployment, only the market collapse).
1) Failure of a regional bank (IndyMac) (Check)
2) Failure of a regional bank (Washington Mutual) (Friday?)
3) Failure of Fannie Mae (Check)
4) Falure of Freddie Mac (Check)
5) End of Wachovia as we know it (January?)
6) End of Citibank as we know it (January?)
7) The United States of America loses its AAA credit rating (April?)
I'm not saying the USA of will have junk status. It may remain the highest rated entity in the world. But it won't be AAA.
So here we have it. The DOW drops below 10,000 by January 15. It spends a little while bouncing between 9,000 and 10,000. And then we move on.
My thoughts on the AIG bailout.
"The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools."
Herbert Spencer
Herbert Spencer
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
I've Made Up My Mind
We are in a deflationary cycle for the short term (up to six months). That could change if Benny and the Inkjets fire up the printing presses and drop cash from helicopters.
Monday, September 15, 2008
Doods, I'm Getting a Sinking Feeling about AIG
I'm watching CNBC and I haven't verified anything but they're waaaay bearish about AIG's future. AIG is a trillion dollar company and the Kudlow (the bullish analyst on CNBC) said AIG failing would be the launching of a financial nuclear bomb and it could happen. All I know is the Fed refused to bail them out and they're rating is getting cut. A rating cut means they need to find an additional $30 billion above the $75 billion they already need to survive. So far, the state of New York said you can borrow from yourself, the Bank of England gave $20 billion, and the US Government said get lost.
*****Update 1: The Atlanta Fed Chairman is talking to Kudlow on CNBC and says he thinks its likely that AIG will file bankruptcy within 36 hours. One sentence later he called this scenario FINANCIAL ARMAGEDDON. HFS. There is NO WAY they will let this happen, right?
*****Update 2: The people in the know are acting like AIG will fail. The overnight lending rate doubled last night and banks are refusing to lend each other cash. This is because they think the bank could go under due to AIG and/or Lehman exposure.
*****Update 3: The Fed is now meeting about AIG and someone in the know says a bailout is back on the table.
*****Update 4: The privately led (by JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs) bailout of AIG has been abandoned. The Fed and Treasury are meeting to discuss a bail out but the standing decision is no bailout of you (and a rate cut...busy day for the Fed).
*****Update 5: The Fed certainly isn't looking investor-friendly as they didn't drop interest rates, as the consensus thought. Maybe it's because they're bailing out AIG?
*****Update 1: The Atlanta Fed Chairman is talking to Kudlow on CNBC and says he thinks its likely that AIG will file bankruptcy within 36 hours. One sentence later he called this scenario FINANCIAL ARMAGEDDON. HFS. There is NO WAY they will let this happen, right?
*****Update 2: The people in the know are acting like AIG will fail. The overnight lending rate doubled last night and banks are refusing to lend each other cash. This is because they think the bank could go under due to AIG and/or Lehman exposure.
*****Update 3: The Fed is now meeting about AIG and someone in the know says a bailout is back on the table.
*****Update 4: The privately led (by JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs) bailout of AIG has been abandoned. The Fed and Treasury are meeting to discuss a bail out but the standing decision is no bailout of you (and a rate cut...busy day for the Fed).
*****Update 5: The Fed certainly isn't looking investor-friendly as they didn't drop interest rates, as the consensus thought. Maybe it's because they're bailing out AIG?
Don't Know if You Noticed
But Bank of America is actually becoming 'The bank of America' that people generally refer to. So they're the largest retail bank, the largest mortgage company, and the third largest investment bank. It's not time to buy, but when it is, Buy and Hold BAC.
Check this out...he's a guy I like but has always sounded like a black helicopter type. Until today.
Check this out...he's a guy I like but has always sounded like a black helicopter type. Until today.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Great Googly Mooglie
I think Lehman Brothers is actually going to be left to die. Merrill is the victim of a forced sale to Bank of America. AIG is going to lose its AAA ranking and will announce a restructuring. An analyst said the FDIC takeover of Washington Mutual will take its reserves to almost zero. The Asian markets are off for holiday but the Australian markets are, uhm, tanking.
If you care about the world, today will be one to tell the grand kids about (unless something major changes by 9:30 AM EST).
*****Update: at about 9:30 PM, The Fed started offering every scheme it could think of, leading me to believe that Lehman is definitely going to be reading Chapter 7, 11, or 13 of some book.
*****Update 2: at about 8:00 AM Lehman filed for bankruptcy. They had $643 Billion dollars in debt. No wonder no one would touch them. The Lehman Brothers debt accounts for about 5% of this year's GDP.
*****Update 3: just for kicks I looked up the losses for Long Term Capital Management, a 1998 disaster that 'rocked the financial world' and it came to $4.8 billion dollars. They said that was bad. We're at $450 billion before the Lehman fallout. And the Washington Mutual fallout. And the AIG fallout.
If you care about the world, today will be one to tell the grand kids about (unless something major changes by 9:30 AM EST).
*****Update: at about 9:30 PM, The Fed started offering every scheme it could think of, leading me to believe that Lehman is definitely going to be reading Chapter 7, 11, or 13 of some book.
*****Update 2: at about 8:00 AM Lehman filed for bankruptcy. They had $643 Billion dollars in debt. No wonder no one would touch them. The Lehman Brothers debt accounts for about 5% of this year's GDP.
*****Update 3: just for kicks I looked up the losses for Long Term Capital Management, a 1998 disaster that 'rocked the financial world' and it came to $4.8 billion dollars. They said that was bad. We're at $450 billion before the Lehman fallout. And the Washington Mutual fallout. And the AIG fallout.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Film Drunk: Where movie news and juvenile humor come to space dock
TRANSFORMERS 2 TO FEATURE… GORILLA TRON!
I only link this because of one comment that I think "Bruce Jenner", formerly the 'Uar, nee Mr. S, will find fucking hilarious:
"You know how Devastator got so strong don’t you? Robot pull-ups."
Oh, and of course the G.P. , if he ever read the blog, would just drool over the new Transformers /slash/ Megan Fox movie .
I only link this because of one comment that I think "Bruce Jenner", formerly the 'Uar, nee Mr. S, will find fucking hilarious:
"You know how Devastator got so strong don’t you? Robot pull-ups."
Oh, and of course the G.P. , if he ever read the blog, would just drool over the new Transformers /slash/ Megan Fox movie .
Friday, September 12, 2008
Canadian TV
SO I have to admit, I'm fairly hard on the Canadian people as a rule. It was supposed to be spelled CND, but the nutjobs and their damn, 'eh' phonic spelling converted it to CehNehDeh that was later romanized by lutheran missionaries to the current spelling.
Worse yet of course is their desire to become French, the only country who beat itself (and lost) to claim one victory in a fairly major conflict. Think about it, a bunch of rat and rice eatin' cousins of mine chased them back into the Tonkin Gulf.
But I'm having to rethink this whole Hate Canada position as I bask in the glow of "Corner Gas" regularly played on WGN at midnight during the week.
This is a key feature presentation in what I like to call 'Tom Time.' In tonight's session I watched an episode of Scrubs while drinking a beer and then switched out the spare tire on the rear left of the subaru with the new tire I bought to replace the one that blew out on NC 117 in Goldsboro at 9pm at night with a polite but VERY awake Caleb in the back seat. The tire that blew was only a month old, so I only had to buy one tire for the all wheel drive car!
Tonight's Corner Gasepisode is pertinent to the StRA blog as Hank, the regular man about town is blogging the events of the week; a sporting horseshoe game and some tax evasion gone wrong. There were also a couple of cameo's from the director of CTV as well. That Brent Butt guy either a fairly good writer OR he knows a enough fair writers to put together a pretty good episode here and there.
Oh hell, Becker, talk about a waste of past prime time. . .
Not exactly a parallel of the StRA community
Worse yet of course is their desire to become French, the only country who beat itself (and lost) to claim one victory in a fairly major conflict. Think about it, a bunch of rat and rice eatin' cousins of mine chased them back into the Tonkin Gulf.
But I'm having to rethink this whole Hate Canada position as I bask in the glow of "Corner Gas" regularly played on WGN at midnight during the week.
This is a key feature presentation in what I like to call 'Tom Time.' In tonight's session I watched an episode of Scrubs while drinking a beer and then switched out the spare tire on the rear left of the subaru with the new tire I bought to replace the one that blew out on NC 117 in Goldsboro at 9pm at night with a polite but VERY awake Caleb in the back seat. The tire that blew was only a month old, so I only had to buy one tire for the all wheel drive car!
Tonight's Corner Gasepisode is pertinent to the StRA blog as Hank, the regular man about town is blogging the events of the week; a sporting horseshoe game and some tax evasion gone wrong. There were also a couple of cameo's from the director of CTV as well. That Brent Butt guy either a fairly good writer OR he knows a enough fair writers to put together a pretty good episode here and there.
Oh hell, Becker, talk about a waste of past prime time. . .
Not exactly a parallel of the StRA community
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Oh little brown jug!!!
NC still raid nets 36 gallons of illegal whiskey :: WRAL.com
Well, the whiskey was spilled on the barroom floor
An' the bar was closed for the night
When out of th corner came a little brown mouse
And he stayed in th pale moonlight
Well !!!!!!!!!! He lapped up the liquor on the barroom floor
An' back on his haunches, he sat
An' all thru the night you could hear him ROOOOOAAAAAARRRRRRRRR!!!!!
Bring on the goddam cat!!!
The cat came in at the break of dawn
An' ate up the little brown mouse
An' the lesson for all you drunken assholes.....
Never take a drink on the house
Well, the whiskey was spilled on the barroom floor
An' the bar was closed for the night
When out of th corner came a little brown mouse
And he stayed in th pale moonlight
Well !!!!!!!!!! He lapped up the liquor on the barroom floor
An' back on his haunches, he sat
An' all thru the night you could hear him ROOOOOAAAAAARRRRRRRRR!!!!!
Bring on the goddam cat!!!
The cat came in at the break of dawn
An' ate up the little brown mouse
An' the lesson for all you drunken assholes.....
Never take a drink on the house
Nazi, Hitler, Banned by Palin?
Check out this truth and rumors report on si.com. Notice in the report about naming rights in NYC, si.com banned the use of 'Nazi' and 'Hitler.' I swear, it reads "ties to **** Germany" and "Adolf ******'s".
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
preschool considerations
Interesting take on educating boys for those with sons currently or the not too distant future. Mintcy and I decided against one daycare program that celebrated mumbling the pledge of allegiance in the 2year old cohort during our tour. Got nothing against the pledge, just don't want my kid in a highly structured setting so darn early. Most well balanced, successful (within parameters I appreciate as success) folks I know spent a good amount of time falling off rocks and running into trees as elementary aged kids. In my case, falling into streams and lakes kind of combined rock/wood collisions with water and the occasional impailment with a fishhook or three. I'll just try to apply a helmet or lifejacket as appropriate to ensure that Caleb's bumps and scrapes aren't as close to lifethreatening as my splashes turned out to be in hindsight.
The Admir0l and the fooball
here's a joke for you:
"You need to stop masturbating," the doctor says.
The man asks, "Why?"
The doctor replies, "Because I'm trying to examine you."
The man asks, "Why?"
The doctor replies, "Because I'm trying to examine you."
Expert opinion needed: Stock Market or Sports Book?
For the record, I know virtually nothing about buying individual stocks. I know that there are technicals and fundamentals, but damn if I know anything beyond those words. I also know that people who do know about these things wouldn't put their money in bank stocks right now for anything. Nevertheless, the gambler in me is tempted by the idea that WaMu is $2.57 today when it's 52-week high is almost $40.
So I was pondering the idea of wasting $250 bucks on 100 shares of WaMu, just on the off chance the storm is weathered even long enough for someone to buy me out at $5 a share. Then I see that the line on the UNC at Rutgers game is Rutgers -4.5. This is the same UNC that only beat McNeese St. by a touchdown. And the game is at Rutgers. I would give Rutgers 2 touchdowns, easy.
So, that's the question. What's the better investment, WaMu or Rutgers?
So I was pondering the idea of wasting $250 bucks on 100 shares of WaMu, just on the off chance the storm is weathered even long enough for someone to buy me out at $5 a share. Then I see that the line on the UNC at Rutgers game is Rutgers -4.5. This is the same UNC that only beat McNeese St. by a touchdown. And the game is at Rutgers. I would give Rutgers 2 touchdowns, easy.
So, that's the question. What's the better investment, WaMu or Rutgers?
Tuesday, September 09, 2008
I just got done reading "Fewer" , so this is not surprising.
globeandmail.com: Europe comes home to the shock of a demographic bombshell
I'll update my review on Goodreads, but suffice to say, I believe that a couple things will happen in the next 50 years:
1) China will PROBABLY start a war with the sole intent of gaining women for breeding stock.
2) Cloning will become acceptable, especially if pregnancy can be done outside the womb.
3) The Sidekick's penchant for Methuselah-like anti-aging cream will become reality.
The book reads like a mass-murder mystery, with the author searching for clues about "Who killed Europe, China, Japan and Russia?"
I'll update my review on Goodreads, but suffice to say, I believe that a couple things will happen in the next 50 years:
1) China will PROBABLY start a war with the sole intent of gaining women for breeding stock.
2) Cloning will become acceptable, especially if pregnancy can be done outside the womb.
3) The Sidekick's penchant for Methuselah-like anti-aging cream will become reality.
The book reads like a mass-murder mystery, with the author searching for clues about "Who killed Europe, China, Japan and Russia?"
Monday, September 08, 2008
Seems Odd Is All
I love how the markets react to a major implosion and collapse. They think it's good news and stocks go souring. Uhm, when $5.2 trillion dollars of debt can't be supported and the government seizes them, that is probably bad news for the future.
Of course, it's good to see Fannie and Freddie get what they deserve. But there's the whole Moral Hazard thing.
Oh, and guess what? Fannie and Freddie stock were the only securities that banks were allowed to count as an asset so the biggest owners of preferred shares are banks. So guess what? All the banks that were having a tough go of it last week now have and indetermined amount of their assetts 'impaired' and they can't loan anymore. Or open next Monday.
Of course, it's good to see Fannie and Freddie get what they deserve. But there's the whole Moral Hazard thing.
Oh, and guess what? Fannie and Freddie stock were the only securities that banks were allowed to count as an asset so the biggest owners of preferred shares are banks. So guess what? All the banks that were having a tough go of it last week now have and indetermined amount of their assetts 'impaired' and they can't loan anymore. Or open next Monday.
Sunday, September 07, 2008
TIVO Broken!
Need Help! TIVO is broken. At some point overnight, it seemed to stop working and rebooted itself. Except it forever states "Welcome! Powering up..." and never gets past this point. Also after about 2 minutes at this point after it turns on (I've of course unplugged it and plugged it back in to reboot among many other things) it starts to make a faint clicking noise at 2 seconds intervals and loud clicking like a dresser drawer ring hitting the drawer every minute (I have a good idea about what it is/happened but don't want to lead anyone down a direction).
I was curious if anyone has seen this symptom as I would like to fix it and it would suck if it was broken, and I couldn't retrieve the things I saved. Maybe I should dump it and get another TWC DVR, which wouldn't be my favorite thing to do.
I was curious if anyone has seen this symptom as I would like to fix it and it would suck if it was broken, and I couldn't retrieve the things I saved. Maybe I should dump it and get another TWC DVR, which wouldn't be my favorite thing to do.
Saturday, September 06, 2008
Hannah Update for sleeping in sin city?
7:45 Looks like a ton of water coming in bands across triangle. Hadly any surface wind here, the birdfeeders aren't even rocking. The last time I interrupted sesame street for a weather update, it was moving north out of sampson county. I think Luke and Elena may get the shit kicked out of them and will try a call a little later. It was raining hard there last night when I buzzed them.
I figure the rains a little worse in Raleigh, but don't know about wind.
Caleb said Elmo's on!
I figure the rains a little worse in Raleigh, but don't know about wind.
Caleb said Elmo's on!
Friday, September 05, 2008
suggestions for locking down shrapnel
so the RA and I delivered mayhem on the old tin shed. Now I've got two piles of potential projectile death in my yard if big winds come our way. SO aside from loading the metal in the truck for the weekend, anyone got other suggestions for securing my weaponry to prevent death, dismemberment and other personal loss if 40mph winds strike my neighborhood?
tom
tom
Thursday, September 04, 2008
Google Chrome, anyone?
Using it to post this. Pretty slick little browser. However; I'm still not sure why they didn't just buy Mozilla, since for all intents and purposes this is going to be a Firefox killer.
Get it here if it so pleases you.
Smells like 1999...
Hope y'all got your bread and toilet paper stocked up! The hurricanes are stacked up like planes landing at McCarran.
The NFL and RNC working together
***Note: My head is spinning because I have no idea where this belongs. Does it belong on the sports blog, the Politics blog, or this blog because the sports and politics cancel each other out. I've decided to put it on the main blog and will leave it up to the Site Admin to make this decision.***
The NFL has moved the starting time of the Giants Redskins game to 7PM tonight (Wonderful time!) to accomodate the RNC. The hope is for the game to end earlier so it doesn't interfere with McCain's speech. Also to help the NFL, McCain will wait until the game is over to begin his speech.
It's wonderful when everyone works together isn't it.
The NFL has moved the starting time of the Giants Redskins game to 7PM tonight (Wonderful time!) to accomodate the RNC. The hope is for the game to end earlier so it doesn't interfere with McCain's speech. Also to help the NFL, McCain will wait until the game is over to begin his speech.
It's wonderful when everyone works together isn't it.
Tuesday, September 02, 2008
Possibly the worst story I could tell
well, not really, but pretty bad none the less.
Let me preface this by saying that I did not feel well at all today: fever, little light headedness, nose running constantly; however, I'm a trooper so I'm at work. Needless to say, my perception of things is a little off.
Flash to my third period pre-algebra class...I'm walking around handing back papers and passing out the sheets that we'll be working on for the day when I catch the unmistakable scent of feces; someone has either crapped their pants or sharted (which is, I guess, essentially the same thing).
Dealing with a student who's dropped a 'Count Dooku' in their pants is not something they go over in your practicum, so I'm left trying to figure out
a) who did it
b) how exactly do you tell a student 'hey, I think you may have shit yourself, you may want to look into that'
c) how the fuck they don't know, what with defecating yourself and then walking around being something that not just anyone can easily pull off
Unfortunately, it was one of those elusive odors that wafted through the classroom rather than clung to one individual (similar to the demon from 'Fallen'), although there were a few culprits (much like the Bedouin, my Pre-Algebra students have a tendency to wander).
The smell was so pervasive that I actually thought for a moment that I had somehow subconsciously shit myself earlier in the day and had just reacquired my senses (after a surreptitious pant check, I cleared myself as a suspect).
I realize that after all this build up, you're expecting some kind of horribly awkward confrontation between myself and the student; fortunately for me, this story has a somewhat happier ending.
My two main suspects both ask to go to the bathroom within minutes of each other! My guess being each smelled what I smelled and needed to do a quick 'draw check' to make sure that their bidness had not been soiled at some point earlier in the day. Well, after their return, the smell was gone and order (what little there is in a HS Pre-Algebra class) was restored.
I'm fairly certain that unlike the identity of the Zodiac killer, we'll never know which of my students shit themselves, but their memory will live on through both this blog and the powerful aroma they emitted from their anus on this fateful day.
With that I say, raise a glass to the student I now lovingly call 'The Mystery Pant Shitter'. Godspeed good sir, godspeed.
Let me preface this by saying that I did not feel well at all today: fever, little light headedness, nose running constantly; however, I'm a trooper so I'm at work. Needless to say, my perception of things is a little off.
Flash to my third period pre-algebra class...I'm walking around handing back papers and passing out the sheets that we'll be working on for the day when I catch the unmistakable scent of feces; someone has either crapped their pants or sharted (which is, I guess, essentially the same thing).
Dealing with a student who's dropped a 'Count Dooku' in their pants is not something they go over in your practicum, so I'm left trying to figure out
a) who did it
b) how exactly do you tell a student 'hey, I think you may have shit yourself, you may want to look into that'
c) how the fuck they don't know, what with defecating yourself and then walking around being something that not just anyone can easily pull off
Unfortunately, it was one of those elusive odors that wafted through the classroom rather than clung to one individual (similar to the demon from 'Fallen'), although there were a few culprits (much like the Bedouin, my Pre-Algebra students have a tendency to wander).
The smell was so pervasive that I actually thought for a moment that I had somehow subconsciously shit myself earlier in the day and had just reacquired my senses (after a surreptitious pant check, I cleared myself as a suspect).
I realize that after all this build up, you're expecting some kind of horribly awkward confrontation between myself and the student; fortunately for me, this story has a somewhat happier ending.
My two main suspects both ask to go to the bathroom within minutes of each other! My guess being each smelled what I smelled and needed to do a quick 'draw check' to make sure that their bidness had not been soiled at some point earlier in the day. Well, after their return, the smell was gone and order (what little there is in a HS Pre-Algebra class) was restored.
I'm fairly certain that unlike the identity of the Zodiac killer, we'll never know which of my students shit themselves, but their memory will live on through both this blog and the powerful aroma they emitted from their anus on this fateful day.
With that I say, raise a glass to the student I now lovingly call 'The Mystery Pant Shitter'. Godspeed good sir, godspeed.
Wikipedia's factual information
What percentage of the information on wikipedia is factual? Any research been done on this? If so, comment on that. If not, your opinion based on anecdotal evidence would be interesting.
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